Investment will surge by 82% in 2024, with OLED accounting for more than half

There are forecasts that global display industry investment in equipment will expand by 82% next year, and will also increase by 25% in 2025. Next year’s forecast of equipment investment expansion by this year’s 61% reduction in the base effect is more influential. The proportion of OLED in display equipment investment is expected to be 54% next year and 84% in 2025.

On December 20, DSCC predicted that global display equipment investment would decrease by 61% to $4.7 billion this year, expand by 82% to $8.5 billion next year, and increase by 25% to $10.6 billion in 2025. The projected 2025 equipment investment of $10.6 billion is not only lower than 2019 before the new coronavirus pneumonia, but also less than the spread of the new coronavirus pneumonia 2020-2022 annual average equipment investment size of about $13 billion.

In the annual display equipment investment, the proportion of organic light-emitting diode (OLED) is expected to reach 54% next year, 84% in 2025 and 82% in 2026. The scale of OLED equipment investment next year is the same as in 2021, and the scale of OLED equipment investment in 2025 is expected to be the same as in 2020.

Although the share of OLED in equipment investment has increased, the share of LCD in global display capacity is expected to continue to maintain an overwhelming share, currently at the head of 90%, and over 80% in 2027. OLED’s share of overall display capacity is expected to increase slightly from 8.4% in 2022 to 10.6% in 2027.

DSCC believes that although LCD capacity growth momentum is limited, as screen sizes continue to expand and demand for LCD TVs rises, it could lead to a shortfall in LCD panel supply if demand in China returns to pre-New Coronavirus Pneumonia levels.

LCD TV and IT products still play a significant role

In terms of applications, LCD TVs and IT products will account for at least 73% of overall display capacity by 2027, and LCD mobile devices will account for 15% by 2027. OLED mobile devices are expected to account for 7% and OLED TVs and IT products for 4% in 2027.

Among the changes in capacity share by application, the OLED mobile devices sector has the highest average annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.3% from 2022-2027. the OLED TVs and IT products sector is up by 1.5%, and the LCD TVs and IT products sector is up by 1.4%. Conversely, the LCD mobile device segment is expected to buck the trend with a 2.2% increase. This is an amorphous silicon (a-Si) LCD production line shutdown and relatively high value-added products low-temperature polycrystalline silicon (LTPS) and oxide (Oxide) production line starts to expand the impact.

China keeps dominance in LCD supply and keeps up with South Korea in OLED estimated in 2027 

Regionally, China is expected to maintain its dominance. China’s share of global display capacity is expected to increase from 65% in 2022 to 72% in 2026-2027. this is reflected in the IT 8th generation investment plans of JDI and Visionox.

China’s LCD capacity share is expected to be 67% in 2022 and 74% in 2025-2027. China’s share of the OLED segment is 49% in 2027, with the segment’s share in South Korea expected to approach 50% in the same year. By the end of 2027, China is expected to have at least a 49% share in all applications and technologies.

South Korea’s share of global display capacity is expected to fall from 12% in 2022 to 8% in 2027. This is because South Korea’s share in LCD will fall from 9% in 2022 to 3% in 2024-2027. South Korea’s OLED share is projected to be 55% in 2022 and 50% in 2027. The gap between South Korea (50%) and China (49%) in terms of OLED capacity share in 2027 is 1 percentage point.

Taiwan’s share of overall display capacity is expected to fall from 19% in 2022 to 17% in 2027. India, through Vedanta, is investing in displays from 2025 and is expected to gain 1% of the world’s display capacity in 2027.

Forecasts for the Leading Panel Manufactures

In terms of companies, BOE has an overwhelming advantage. BOE not only owns LCDs and OLEDs but also has display plants for all applications. Its global display capacity share is expected to be 25-26% in 2022-2027.

TCL Huaxing surpassed LG Display last year and ranked second in overall display capacity. Based on the overall display capacity, TCL Huaxing is expected to continue to occupy about 10% share by 2027. In terms of LCD capacity, TCL Huaxing’s share is expected to rise from 15% in 2021 to 19% in 2027.

HKC is expected to rank third this year with a 12% share of overall display capacity. LG Display, which had been in second place until 2021 but ranked third last year, is in fifth place this year, following Innolux (fourth).

Samsung Display is expected to rank 8th in overall display capacity this year after AUO (6th) and Sharp (7th). Samsung Display 2020 ranked third in LCD behind LG Display but exited the LCD business last year.

Instead, Samsung Display’s share of OLED capacity for mobile devices is expected to exceed 40% by 2026 and reach 37% by 2027. In the same field, BOE is expected to come in second with a 17-18% share from 2022-2027. In terms of 2027, LG Display is ranked third with 11%, Visionox is fourth with 10%, and Tianma is fifth with 9%. In the same year TCL Huaxing, Everdisplay, and JDI are expected to have a share of 5% each.